NFL Week 16 | Coin vs. Machine
DEC 23 2017
Week 1 - Week 2 - Week 3 - Week 4 - Week 5 - Week 6
Week 7 - Week 8 - Week 9 - Week 10 - Week 11 - Week 12
Week 13 - Week 14 - Week 15 - Week 16 - Week 17
Wild Card - Divisional - Conference - Super Bowl
DEC 23 2017
Week 1 - Week 2 - Week 3 - Week 4 - Week 5 - Week 6
Week 7 - Week 8 - Week 9 - Week 10 - Week 11 - Week 12
Week 13 - Week 14 - Week 15 - Week 16 - Week 17
Wild Card - Divisional - Conference - Super Bowl
Merry Christmas and a warm welcome to Week 16 of Coin vs. Machine.
With Chiefs-Chargers and Seahawks-Rams closing as consensus pick'ems, favorites went 14-0-2 outright last week, only the third time that's happened in a week since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. The other two weeks were Week 9 of 2005 and Week 5 of 2006.
If we go by the earlier lines listed here last week (which had the Chiefs and Rams as underdogs), then favorites went 10-4-2 against the spread in Week 15, returning to the type of dominance we saw from them in Weeks 7 through 12. For a detailed look at underdogs' and favorites' respective streaks this season, take a peek back last week's edition of Coin vs. Machine.
With Chiefs-Chargers and Seahawks-Rams closing as consensus pick'ems, favorites went 14-0-2 outright last week, only the third time that's happened in a week since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. The other two weeks were Week 9 of 2005 and Week 5 of 2006.
If we go by the earlier lines listed here last week (which had the Chiefs and Rams as underdogs), then favorites went 10-4-2 against the spread in Week 15, returning to the type of dominance we saw from them in Weeks 7 through 12. For a detailed look at underdogs' and favorites' respective streaks this season, take a peek back last week's edition of Coin vs. Machine.
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Looking Back at Week 15’s Picks
The three-model majority (“machine”) and coin picks both went 7-7-2 against the spread (ATS) in Week 15. They're mirror images of one another on the season, with respective marks of 111-105-8 and 105-111-8 ATS. I thought the coin would have gotten really lucky one week by now, but it's been pretty steady, including a current run of three straight weeks at exactly .500 ATS. Its best week was Week 10, when it went 9-4-1 ATS. At 10-4-2 ATS, Jeff Sagarin's Offense-Defense Method Predictions led the pack for the second week in a row, posting 10 ATS wins in both weeks.
Three-model unanimous picks went 1-3-1 ATS. Their ~60% success rate ATS through Weeks 6 and 8 appears to have been fool's gold, as they've now slipped to 42-40-5 ATS cumulatively. That's no fun. Five-model unanimous picks (Tier I "best bets") went 2-2-1 ATS. They haven't topped .500 since Week 10 but are 30-20-5 ATS on the year. So there's still some fun there. (For reasons rehashed last week, a pick can be five-model unanimous without being three-model unanimous because five-model unanimous technically means no model picked against that team.)
Tennessee felt like a shaky Tier I "best bet" last week against Jimmy Garoppolo and the surging 49ers' last week, and the Niners pulled out their third-straight win with a last-second field goal. That only forced a push, but it's another good example of how injuries and personnel changes bamboozle the models. In this example, the lines factored in the Garoppolo-led surge but models largely did not, so they thought the Titans had a favorable line against a heretofore terrible 49ers squad. Without Carson Wentz, Philly was another shaky Tier I "best bet.". The Eagles failed to cover at the Giants.
The three-model majority (“machine”) and coin picks both went 7-7-2 against the spread (ATS) in Week 15. They're mirror images of one another on the season, with respective marks of 111-105-8 and 105-111-8 ATS. I thought the coin would have gotten really lucky one week by now, but it's been pretty steady, including a current run of three straight weeks at exactly .500 ATS. Its best week was Week 10, when it went 9-4-1 ATS. At 10-4-2 ATS, Jeff Sagarin's Offense-Defense Method Predictions led the pack for the second week in a row, posting 10 ATS wins in both weeks.
Three-model unanimous picks went 1-3-1 ATS. Their ~60% success rate ATS through Weeks 6 and 8 appears to have been fool's gold, as they've now slipped to 42-40-5 ATS cumulatively. That's no fun. Five-model unanimous picks (Tier I "best bets") went 2-2-1 ATS. They haven't topped .500 since Week 10 but are 30-20-5 ATS on the year. So there's still some fun there. (For reasons rehashed last week, a pick can be five-model unanimous without being three-model unanimous because five-model unanimous technically means no model picked against that team.)
Tennessee felt like a shaky Tier I "best bet" last week against Jimmy Garoppolo and the surging 49ers' last week, and the Niners pulled out their third-straight win with a last-second field goal. That only forced a push, but it's another good example of how injuries and personnel changes bamboozle the models. In this example, the lines factored in the Garoppolo-led surge but models largely did not, so they thought the Titans had a favorable line against a heretofore terrible 49ers squad. Without Carson Wentz, Philly was another shaky Tier I "best bet.". The Eagles failed to cover at the Giants.
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Looking Ahead to Week 16’s Picks
In true Christmas spirit, Week 16 has gifted us nine three-model unanimous picks, four Tier I "best bets" (five-model unanimous picks), and seven Tier II selections (wherein four models agree). But be careful what you wish for. Three-model unanimous picks have struggled and five-model unanimous picks have performed modestly since Week 10, even with their 60% overall success rate ATS. Tier II picks are a surprising 10-4-2 ATS over the last three weeks, but they're only at 52% ATS on the year. Who can you trust?
Jacksonville (-4.0) at San Francisco, Chicago (-6.5) versus Cleveland, Green Bay (+8.5) versus Minnesota, and Seattle (+5.0) at Dallas are the Tier I "best bets" in Week 16. But Jacksonville gets a Garoppolo asterisk and Seattle gets a no-secondary asterisk. Minnesota was a Tier I pick earlier in the week, when Vegas had the Vikings as 2.5-point favorites because they thought Aaron Rodgers was playing. At 8.5 points, the models love Green Bay. Tread carefully.
As always, keep an eye on your lines relative to what’s listed below. The three-model majority (“machine”) pick is Tampa at +10.0 but Carolina at -9.0; New England at -12.0 but Buffalo at +13.0; Miami at +10.5 but Kansas City at -9.5; and Washington at -3.5 but Denver at +4.5 (Or don't, because the machine pick is about as reliable as flipping a coin.)
In true Christmas spirit, Week 16 has gifted us nine three-model unanimous picks, four Tier I "best bets" (five-model unanimous picks), and seven Tier II selections (wherein four models agree). But be careful what you wish for. Three-model unanimous picks have struggled and five-model unanimous picks have performed modestly since Week 10, even with their 60% overall success rate ATS. Tier II picks are a surprising 10-4-2 ATS over the last three weeks, but they're only at 52% ATS on the year. Who can you trust?
Jacksonville (-4.0) at San Francisco, Chicago (-6.5) versus Cleveland, Green Bay (+8.5) versus Minnesota, and Seattle (+5.0) at Dallas are the Tier I "best bets" in Week 16. But Jacksonville gets a Garoppolo asterisk and Seattle gets a no-secondary asterisk. Minnesota was a Tier I pick earlier in the week, when Vegas had the Vikings as 2.5-point favorites because they thought Aaron Rodgers was playing. At 8.5 points, the models love Green Bay. Tread carefully.
As always, keep an eye on your lines relative to what’s listed below. The three-model majority (“machine”) pick is Tampa at +10.0 but Carolina at -9.0; New England at -12.0 but Buffalo at +13.0; Miami at +10.5 but Kansas City at -9.5; and Washington at -3.5 but Denver at +4.5 (Or don't, because the machine pick is about as reliable as flipping a coin.)
Tiered picks are based on the five models listed below (methodology)
Merry Christmas and enjoy!
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The five models referenced are created by and sourced from FiveThirtyEight ("Elo"), Jeff Sagarin via USA Today ("Rating" and "Offense-Defense Method Projections"), RP-Excel.com ("R-P Excel I"), and NutshellSports.com ("Nutshell Sports NFL Ratings"). Lines are sourced from FootballLocks.com as of Dec 23 at 5pm ET. Data was compiled and analyzed by ELDORADO. All charts and graphics herein were created by ELDORADO.
ELDORADO | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
eldo.co | @eldo_co
ELDORADO | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
eldo.co | @eldo_co