NFL Week 14 | Coin vs. Machine
DEC 10 2017
Week 1 - Week 2 - Week 3 - Week 4 - Week 5 - Week 6
Week 7 - Week 8 - Week 9 - Week 10 - Week 11 - Week 12
Week 13 - Week 14 - Week 15 - Week 16 - Week 17
Wild Card - Divisional - Conference - Super Bowl
DEC 10 2017
Week 1 - Week 2 - Week 3 - Week 4 - Week 5 - Week 6
Week 7 - Week 8 - Week 9 - Week 10 - Week 11 - Week 12
Week 13 - Week 14 - Week 15 - Week 16 - Week 17
Wild Card - Divisional - Conference - Super Bowl
Welcome to Week 14 of Coin versus Machine. Let's get right to the business.
Looking Back at Week 13’s Picks
With six five-model unanimous picks (Tier I "best bets"), Week 13 had the potential to affirm or derail the tier's noteworthy performance this season. In going 3-3 against the spread (ATS), it did neither. Green Bay, Miami, and New Orleans covered, and Chicago, Houston, and Detroit did not.
(It's an admittedly funny quirk of this invented model-of-models system, but Week 13 actually offered more "five-model unanimous" picks than "three-model unanimous picks." That's because the five-model unanimous (Tier I "best bet") tier includes picks that were backed by four models and matched by the fifth. Detroit (+3.0) fit that bill in Week 13. The Lions were supported by all except FiveThirtyEight, which had the line just right.)
Three-model unanimous picks went 3-2 against the spread in Week 13 and are now 37-32-3 on the season. Tier II had a nice week at 3-1 but remains just 32-33-4 season-to-date. Tiers III, IV, and V also continue to hover right around .500 against the spread for the year.
With six five-model unanimous picks (Tier I "best bets"), Week 13 had the potential to affirm or derail the tier's noteworthy performance this season. In going 3-3 against the spread (ATS), it did neither. Green Bay, Miami, and New Orleans covered, and Chicago, Houston, and Detroit did not.
(It's an admittedly funny quirk of this invented model-of-models system, but Week 13 actually offered more "five-model unanimous" picks than "three-model unanimous picks." That's because the five-model unanimous (Tier I "best bet") tier includes picks that were backed by four models and matched by the fifth. Detroit (+3.0) fit that bill in Week 13. The Lions were supported by all except FiveThirtyEight, which had the line just right.)
Three-model unanimous picks went 3-2 against the spread in Week 13 and are now 37-32-3 on the season. Tier II had a nice week at 3-1 but remains just 32-33-4 season-to-date. Tiers III, IV, and V also continue to hover right around .500 against the spread for the year.
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Looking Ahead to Week 14’s Picks
The Patriots are the only Week 14 team favored by a touchdown a more. That isn't many, but don't forget that Week 7 of this season featured zero teams favored by 6.5 or more. Four out of five models like the Pats to cover at -11.0, making New England a Tier II pick in Week 14.
Nine of this week's 16 games are three-model unanimous (shown in dark blue below). Those picks are 37-32-3 against the spread so far this season. Another six teams are backed by four of the five models against the spread, making them this week's Tier II selections. That might sound like a lot, and it'll be influential, but keep in mind that Tier II picks have more or less operated at a .500 level over the course of this season (32-33-4 season-to-date).
Green Bay (-3.0) and Houston (-3.0) check in as this week's five-model unanimous selections (Tier I "best bets"). But both are worthy of at least some asterisking. The Packers have done well the past two weeks, but the models still capture the team's play with Aaron Rodgers, so five-model unanimity could be a little overstated. (Then again, the Packers are at Cleveland, and the Browns are winless and horrific.)
Similarly, the Texans' against-the-spread pick-em math benefits from the inclusion of Deshaun Watson and the exclusion of Jimmy Garoppolo, who will be quarterbacking the 49ers -- Houston's opponent -- with more ability than Brian Hoyer and C.J. Beathard did in weeks' prior. Long story short, I'd take this week's five-model unanimous picks with a grain of salt. Green Bay kinda feels okay; Houston does not.
As always, watch out for your lines. The three-model majority pick is Chicago +6.0 but Cincinnati -5.0; Kansas City at -4.0 but Oakland at +5.0; Pittsburgh at -5.0 but Baltimore at +6.0; and New England at -11.0 but Miami at +12.0. (On Thursday night, the models liked the Falcons at +1.0 or even -1.0, but they preferred the Saints at +1.5 or more. The line moved quite a bit and settled in at Falcons -2.5.)
The Patriots are the only Week 14 team favored by a touchdown a more. That isn't many, but don't forget that Week 7 of this season featured zero teams favored by 6.5 or more. Four out of five models like the Pats to cover at -11.0, making New England a Tier II pick in Week 14.
Nine of this week's 16 games are three-model unanimous (shown in dark blue below). Those picks are 37-32-3 against the spread so far this season. Another six teams are backed by four of the five models against the spread, making them this week's Tier II selections. That might sound like a lot, and it'll be influential, but keep in mind that Tier II picks have more or less operated at a .500 level over the course of this season (32-33-4 season-to-date).
Green Bay (-3.0) and Houston (-3.0) check in as this week's five-model unanimous selections (Tier I "best bets"). But both are worthy of at least some asterisking. The Packers have done well the past two weeks, but the models still capture the team's play with Aaron Rodgers, so five-model unanimity could be a little overstated. (Then again, the Packers are at Cleveland, and the Browns are winless and horrific.)
Similarly, the Texans' against-the-spread pick-em math benefits from the inclusion of Deshaun Watson and the exclusion of Jimmy Garoppolo, who will be quarterbacking the 49ers -- Houston's opponent -- with more ability than Brian Hoyer and C.J. Beathard did in weeks' prior. Long story short, I'd take this week's five-model unanimous picks with a grain of salt. Green Bay kinda feels okay; Houston does not.
As always, watch out for your lines. The three-model majority pick is Chicago +6.0 but Cincinnati -5.0; Kansas City at -4.0 but Oakland at +5.0; Pittsburgh at -5.0 but Baltimore at +6.0; and New England at -11.0 but Miami at +12.0. (On Thursday night, the models liked the Falcons at +1.0 or even -1.0, but they preferred the Saints at +1.5 or more. The line moved quite a bit and settled in at Falcons -2.5.)
Tiered picks are based on the five models listed below (methodology)
I should get back to a normal (Thursday publish) schedule this coming week. In the meantime, good luck and enjoy Week 14!
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The five models referenced are created by and sourced from FiveThirtyEight ("Elo"), Jeff Sagarin via USA Today ("Rating" and "Offense-Defense Method Projections"), RP-Excel.com ("R-P Excel I"), and NutshellSports.com ("Nutshell Sports NFL Ratings"). Lines are sourced from FootballLocks.com as of Dec 9 at 5pm ET. Data was compiled and analyzed by ELDORADO. All charts and graphics herein were created by ELDORADO.
ELDORADO | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
eldo.co | @eldo_co
ELDORADO | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
eldo.co | @eldo_co