NFL Week 13 | Coin vs. Machine
Big test this week with six Tier I "best bets"
DEC 3 2017
Week 1 - Week 2 - Week 3 - Week 4 - Week 5 - Week 6
Week 7 - Week 8 - Week 9 - Week 10 - Week 11 - Week 12
Week 13 - Week 14 - Week 15 - Week 16 - Week 17
Wild Card - Divisional - Conference - Super Bowl
Big test this week with six Tier I "best bets"
DEC 3 2017
Week 1 - Week 2 - Week 3 - Week 4 - Week 5 - Week 6
Week 7 - Week 8 - Week 9 - Week 10 - Week 11 - Week 12
Week 13 - Week 14 - Week 15 - Week 16 - Week 17
Wild Card - Divisional - Conference - Super Bowl
Welcome (finally) to Week 13 of Coin versus Machine. Sorry for the wait.
Real quick because we're playing catch-up. Two big headlines from last week. First were the heavy favorites. Five teams were favored by 9.5 points or more - the most such "heavy favorites" since Week 17 of 2014 (and the most for a non-Week 16/17 since Week 8 of 2013).
Those five teams went 3-2 against the spread (ATS). The Eagles, Falcons, and Patriots covered, and the Chiefs and Steelers didn't. There's been some chatter about good teams covering high spreads this season, but that's mostly hogwash. So watch out for the hype.
From 2012 through 2016, NFL teams that finished 13-3 or better went 18-12 against the spread when favored by 9.0 points or more (60% win percentage ATS). You could kinda sorta maybe argue that that's a trend. All of the upside was at home, too. So maybe.
But not really. The Patriots are now 1-4 ATS this season when favored by 9.0 or more, the Eagles are 1-1, and the Steelers are 0-3. (The Saints are 0-1 and the Vikings are 1-0.) So if you rode that elite-team-high-spread theory, you'd be pretty deep in the hole.
Nevertheless, the other big Week 12 headline was the continued domination of favorites. They went 14-2 outright and 12-3-1 ATS. Since Week 7, favorites are 72-13 outright and 53-26-6 ATS. From Weeks 1-6, they were 51-40 outright and 36-54-1 ATS.
Real quick because we're playing catch-up. Two big headlines from last week. First were the heavy favorites. Five teams were favored by 9.5 points or more - the most such "heavy favorites" since Week 17 of 2014 (and the most for a non-Week 16/17 since Week 8 of 2013).
Those five teams went 3-2 against the spread (ATS). The Eagles, Falcons, and Patriots covered, and the Chiefs and Steelers didn't. There's been some chatter about good teams covering high spreads this season, but that's mostly hogwash. So watch out for the hype.
From 2012 through 2016, NFL teams that finished 13-3 or better went 18-12 against the spread when favored by 9.0 points or more (60% win percentage ATS). You could kinda sorta maybe argue that that's a trend. All of the upside was at home, too. So maybe.
But not really. The Patriots are now 1-4 ATS this season when favored by 9.0 or more, the Eagles are 1-1, and the Steelers are 0-3. (The Saints are 0-1 and the Vikings are 1-0.) So if you rode that elite-team-high-spread theory, you'd be pretty deep in the hole.
Nevertheless, the other big Week 12 headline was the continued domination of favorites. They went 14-2 outright and 12-3-1 ATS. Since Week 7, favorites are 72-13 outright and 53-26-6 ATS. From Weeks 1-6, they were 51-40 outright and 36-54-1 ATS.
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Looking Back at Week 12’s Picks
Let's keep it quick here too in the interest of time. The models mostly sucked wind in Week 12. As a group, the three-model majority pick hasn't gone more than two games over .500 ATS since Week 5. And it's 44-49-6 ATS over the span. Two games worse than our coin-flip.
As weekly readers know, the real horse in this race has been the five-model majority picks (Tier I "best bets"). They went 2-3 against the spread last week, having lost with Dallas, New Orleans, and Detroit and won with Green Bay and Seattle. Those picks are now 24-14-1 ATS.
Tier II picks went 1-2 against the spread in Week 12 and are now 29-32-4 ATS on the season; Tier III went 1-1 ATS in Week 12 (10-13 YTD); Tier IV went 1-0-1 (9-7-1 YTD); and Tier V "toss-ups" went 1-3 (14-15 YTD). As we know, Tier I is really the only thing worth writing home about.
Let's keep it quick here too in the interest of time. The models mostly sucked wind in Week 12. As a group, the three-model majority pick hasn't gone more than two games over .500 ATS since Week 5. And it's 44-49-6 ATS over the span. Two games worse than our coin-flip.
As weekly readers know, the real horse in this race has been the five-model majority picks (Tier I "best bets"). They went 2-3 against the spread last week, having lost with Dallas, New Orleans, and Detroit and won with Green Bay and Seattle. Those picks are now 24-14-1 ATS.
Tier II picks went 1-2 against the spread in Week 12 and are now 29-32-4 ATS on the season; Tier III went 1-1 ATS in Week 12 (10-13 YTD); Tier IV went 1-0-1 (9-7-1 YTD); and Tier V "toss-ups" went 1-3 (14-15 YTD). As we know, Tier I is really the only thing worth writing home about.
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Looking Ahead to Week 13’s Picks
The models are very top heavy in Week 13. Chicago, Houston, Green Bay, Detroit, Miami, and New Orleans are all Tier I "best bets" against the spreads listed below (meaning they're either five-model unanimous or four-model unanimous with one spot-on implied line).
That many Tier I "best bets" makes for a big week for the models. Four or five wins against the spread will feel like something. Two wins and four losses will mean three straight losing weeks against the spread (even with a decent overall performance against the spread).
As always, watch out for your lines relative to what's listed below. The three-model majority pick is New England at -8.5 but Buffalo at +9.5, the L.A. Chargers at -14.0 but Cleveland at +14.5, New Orleans -4.5 but Carolina at 5.0; and Cincinnati a +5.5 but Pittsburgh +6.0.
The models are very top heavy in Week 13. Chicago, Houston, Green Bay, Detroit, Miami, and New Orleans are all Tier I "best bets" against the spreads listed below (meaning they're either five-model unanimous or four-model unanimous with one spot-on implied line).
That many Tier I "best bets" makes for a big week for the models. Four or five wins against the spread will feel like something. Two wins and four losses will mean three straight losing weeks against the spread (even with a decent overall performance against the spread).
As always, watch out for your lines relative to what's listed below. The three-model majority pick is New England at -8.5 but Buffalo at +9.5, the L.A. Chargers at -14.0 but Cleveland at +14.5, New Orleans -4.5 but Carolina at 5.0; and Cincinnati a +5.5 but Pittsburgh +6.0.
Tiered picks are based on the five models listed below (methodology)
Good luck and enjoy Week 13!
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The five models referenced are created by and sourced from FiveThirtyEight ("Elo"), Jeff Sagarin via USA Today ("Rating" and "Offense-Defense Method Projections"), RP-Excel.com ("R-P Excel I"), and NutshellSports.com ("Nutshell Sports NFL Ratings"). Lines are sourced from FootballLocks.com as of Nov 30 at 3pm PT. Data was compiled and analyzed by ELDORADO. All charts and graphics herein were created by ELDORADO.
ELDORADO | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
eldo.co | @eldo_co
ELDORADO | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
eldo.co | @eldo_co