NFL Divisional Playoffs | Coin vs. Machine
The models mostly like the underdogs against the spread
JAN 12 2018
Week 1 - Week 2 - Week 3 - Week 4 - Week 5 - Week 6
Week 7 - Week 8 - Week 9 - Week 10 - Week 11 - Week 12
Week 13 - Week 14 - Week 15 - Week 16 - Week 17
Wild Card - Divisional - Conference - Super Bowl
The models mostly like the underdogs against the spread
JAN 12 2018
Week 1 - Week 2 - Week 3 - Week 4 - Week 5 - Week 6
Week 7 - Week 8 - Week 9 - Week 10 - Week 11 - Week 12
Week 13 - Week 14 - Week 15 - Week 16 - Week 17
Wild Card - Divisional - Conference - Super Bowl
Hope 2018 is treating you well and you're looking forward to the Divisional Round.
Looking Back at Wild Card Weekend’s Picks
The models were pretty split in their against-the-spread opinions last week, and the results shook out accordingly. In fact, as presented in the table below, there's a perfect fade from green to red. FiveThirtyEight's projections went 4-0 when applied to the spread, Sagarin's Ratings method went 3-1, RP-Excel went 2-2, Nutshell Sports went 1-3, and Sagarin's Offense-Defense Method Predictions (which performed best during the season) went 0-4.
Three-model unanimous, majority, and points picks went 3-1 against the spread, while the five-model selections went 2-2. R-P Excel had Atlanta beating Los Angeles by nine, which helped swing that game's projected line to Rams -2.4, which was a decent way off Vegas's -6.0. If you believe the models, then it was the most mispriced game of Wild Card Weekend, and the Falcons delivered, winning outright by 13 points on the road, 26-13.
The models were pretty split in their against-the-spread opinions last week, and the results shook out accordingly. In fact, as presented in the table below, there's a perfect fade from green to red. FiveThirtyEight's projections went 4-0 when applied to the spread, Sagarin's Ratings method went 3-1, RP-Excel went 2-2, Nutshell Sports went 1-3, and Sagarin's Offense-Defense Method Predictions (which performed best during the season) went 0-4.
Three-model unanimous, majority, and points picks went 3-1 against the spread, while the five-model selections went 2-2. R-P Excel had Atlanta beating Los Angeles by nine, which helped swing that game's projected line to Rams -2.4, which was a decent way off Vegas's -6.0. If you believe the models, then it was the most mispriced game of Wild Card Weekend, and the Falcons delivered, winning outright by 13 points on the road, 26-13.
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Looking Ahead to the Divisional Round
There's a little more consensus among the models this week, and that consensus supports the underdogs. Every model except R-P Excel likes Philadelphia +3.0 at home against Atlanta. FiveThirtyEight is the only model that likes Pittsburgh -7.0 at home against Jacksonville. (Three support the Jags with the points and one, R-P Excel, has a projection that matches the Vegas line.) And Nutshell Sports is the only model that likes Minnesota -5.0 at home for New Orleans. (Again, three prefer the Saints with the points and R-P Excel's projection matches Friday afternoon's Vegas line.)
By the logic we used all season, that makes the the Eagles, Jaguars, and Saints "Tier II picks," meaning only one of the five models likes against them against the spread when their projections are applied. (Tier II picks had a 53.0% win rate against the spread in Weeks 1-16.) On average, the five models project the Eagles to win by 2.2 points (5.2 points above the line), the Steelers to win by 4.7 points (2.3 points below the line), the Patriots to win by 12.3 points (1.2 points below the line), and the Vikings to win by 3.9 points (1.1 points below the line).
But remember that by and large, the models don't really know that Nick Foles is under center for the Eagles instead of Carson Wentz, making the Eagles the first top seed to be booked as an underdog in its first playoff game. David Purdum of ESPN Chalk reports that Philly would be as much as 6.5-point favorites if Wentz were starting, which is a pretty wild swing for a single player. (R-P Excel appears to be the only model that factors in the Eagles' QB situation.)
And also remember to watch out for line movement relative to what's listed below. Sagarin Recent likes Tennessee at +13.5 but New England at -12.5, which would turn the Patriots into the majority pick. The Vikings become the majority pick at -3.5, but the Saints become a five-model unanimous pick if they're getting 5.5 (and those had a 59.3% ATS win rate in Weeks 1-16). The Steelers become the majority selection at -5.5. (Interestingly, Sagarin's Offense-Defense Method Projections have the Jaguars winning outright by 0.05 points. Poppycock or prophecy?)
There's a little more consensus among the models this week, and that consensus supports the underdogs. Every model except R-P Excel likes Philadelphia +3.0 at home against Atlanta. FiveThirtyEight is the only model that likes Pittsburgh -7.0 at home against Jacksonville. (Three support the Jags with the points and one, R-P Excel, has a projection that matches the Vegas line.) And Nutshell Sports is the only model that likes Minnesota -5.0 at home for New Orleans. (Again, three prefer the Saints with the points and R-P Excel's projection matches Friday afternoon's Vegas line.)
By the logic we used all season, that makes the the Eagles, Jaguars, and Saints "Tier II picks," meaning only one of the five models likes against them against the spread when their projections are applied. (Tier II picks had a 53.0% win rate against the spread in Weeks 1-16.) On average, the five models project the Eagles to win by 2.2 points (5.2 points above the line), the Steelers to win by 4.7 points (2.3 points below the line), the Patriots to win by 12.3 points (1.2 points below the line), and the Vikings to win by 3.9 points (1.1 points below the line).
But remember that by and large, the models don't really know that Nick Foles is under center for the Eagles instead of Carson Wentz, making the Eagles the first top seed to be booked as an underdog in its first playoff game. David Purdum of ESPN Chalk reports that Philly would be as much as 6.5-point favorites if Wentz were starting, which is a pretty wild swing for a single player. (R-P Excel appears to be the only model that factors in the Eagles' QB situation.)
And also remember to watch out for line movement relative to what's listed below. Sagarin Recent likes Tennessee at +13.5 but New England at -12.5, which would turn the Patriots into the majority pick. The Vikings become the majority pick at -3.5, but the Saints become a five-model unanimous pick if they're getting 5.5 (and those had a 59.3% ATS win rate in Weeks 1-16). The Steelers become the majority selection at -5.5. (Interestingly, Sagarin's Offense-Defense Method Projections have the Jaguars winning outright by 0.05 points. Poppycock or prophecy?)
Tiered picks are based on the five models listed below (methodology)
Enjoy the weekend!
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The five models referenced are created by and sourced from FiveThirtyEight ("Elo"), Jeff Sagarin via USA Today ("Rating" and "Offense-Defense Method Projections"), RP-Excel.com ("R-P Excel I"), and NutshellSports.com ("Nutshell Sports NFL Ratings"). Lines are sourced from FootballLocks.com as of Jan 12 at 4pm ET. Data was compiled and analyzed by ELDORADO. All charts and graphics herein were created by ELDORADO.
ELDORADO | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
eldo.co | @eldo_co
ELDORADO | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
eldo.co | @eldo_co