NFL Week 10 | Coin vs. Machine
NOV 9 2017
Week 1 - Week 2 - Week 3 - Week 4 - Week 5 - Week 6
Week 7 - Week 8 - Week 9 - Week 10 - Week 11 - Week 12
Week 13 - Week 14 - Week 15 - Week 16 - Week 17
Wild Card - Divisional - Conference - Super Bowl
NOV 9 2017
Week 1 - Week 2 - Week 3 - Week 4 - Week 5 - Week 6
Week 7 - Week 8 - Week 9 - Week 10 - Week 11 - Week 12
Week 13 - Week 14 - Week 15 - Week 16 - Week 17
Wild Card - Divisional - Conference - Super Bowl
A warm welcome. Hard to believe it’s already Week 10 of the 2017 NFL season. First some trends:
Favorites went 10-3 outright and 7-5-1 against the spread in Week 9. They’re now 34-7 outright over the past three weeks, after having gone 30-30 outright in Weeks 3-6 and 21-10 outright in Weeks 1-2. They were good, then they weren’t, and now they’re on a hot streak. We’ll see how that holds up in Week 10.
The average margin of victory in Week 9 was 12.5 points, making it the third week in a row that games were decided by an average of 12.5+. It’s the first such three-week stretch since Weeks 2-3-4 of 2014.
As of Thursday night, four Week 10 teams are favored by 9.0 points or more – Pittsburgh (-10) at Indy, Detroit (-12) versus Cleveland, the L.A. Rams (-12) versus Houston, and Carolina (-9) versus Miami. There were four such favorites in Week 6 and three in Week 8. Prior to this season, we hadn’t had four teams favored by 9.0 or more in one week since Week 17 of 2014. There have already been 18 of them this year – last year there were 19 total across the entire regular season. Let’s see if the Carolina line holds.
Favorites went 10-3 outright and 7-5-1 against the spread in Week 9. They’re now 34-7 outright over the past three weeks, after having gone 30-30 outright in Weeks 3-6 and 21-10 outright in Weeks 1-2. They were good, then they weren’t, and now they’re on a hot streak. We’ll see how that holds up in Week 10.
The average margin of victory in Week 9 was 12.5 points, making it the third week in a row that games were decided by an average of 12.5+. It’s the first such three-week stretch since Weeks 2-3-4 of 2014.
As of Thursday night, four Week 10 teams are favored by 9.0 points or more – Pittsburgh (-10) at Indy, Detroit (-12) versus Cleveland, the L.A. Rams (-12) versus Houston, and Carolina (-9) versus Miami. There were four such favorites in Week 6 and three in Week 8. Prior to this season, we hadn’t had four teams favored by 9.0 or more in one week since Week 17 of 2014. There have already been 18 of them this year – last year there were 19 total across the entire regular season. Let’s see if the Carolina line holds.
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Looking Back at Week 9’s Picks
Week 9 was relatively unremarkable on the Coin versus Machine front. The machine (three-model majority) went 6-6-1 against the spread, the coin went 7-5-1, and the models were all around .500.
Importantly, Philadelphia won as Week 9’s only five-model unanimous pick (Tier I “best bet”). As you’ll see below, those picks are now a sterling 18-8 against the spread on the year (69% win percentage). Three-model unanimous selections went 1-2 against the spread and slipped to 27-20-1 YTD (57%).
Houston and Green Bay both lost as would-be Tier II selections, but they were excluded due to their QB injuries (which the lines factor in but the models do not). Absent those games, Tier II picks went 4-2-1, good for their second-best week of the season. But those exclusions are baked back into the broader YTD standings (below), so Tier II didn’t pick up any ground and continues to drag on the year at 23-27-3 (46%). [At some point I’ll look back all of the potential exclusions to see what it’d look like without them.]
Tier III picks went 0-1 (8-8 YTD), Tier IVs went 0-0 (8-7 YTD), and Tier V “toss-ups” went 1-1 (11-11 YTD).
Week 9 was relatively unremarkable on the Coin versus Machine front. The machine (three-model majority) went 6-6-1 against the spread, the coin went 7-5-1, and the models were all around .500.
Importantly, Philadelphia won as Week 9’s only five-model unanimous pick (Tier I “best bet”). As you’ll see below, those picks are now a sterling 18-8 against the spread on the year (69% win percentage). Three-model unanimous selections went 1-2 against the spread and slipped to 27-20-1 YTD (57%).
Houston and Green Bay both lost as would-be Tier II selections, but they were excluded due to their QB injuries (which the lines factor in but the models do not). Absent those games, Tier II picks went 4-2-1, good for their second-best week of the season. But those exclusions are baked back into the broader YTD standings (below), so Tier II didn’t pick up any ground and continues to drag on the year at 23-27-3 (46%). [At some point I’ll look back all of the potential exclusions to see what it’d look like without them.]
Tier III picks went 0-1 (8-8 YTD), Tier IVs went 0-0 (8-7 YTD), and Tier V “toss-ups” went 1-1 (11-11 YTD).
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Looking Ahead to Week 10’s Picks
Week 10’s 14 games are rich with consensus among the models – at least in theory. There are eight three-model unanimous picks, four five-model unanimous picks (Tier I “best bets”), and five Tier II picks.
But beware of fool’s gold. Three of the four Tier I “best bet” teams are missing key players, including Tampa Bay (Jameis Winston is out), Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers is out), and Dallas (Zeke Elliott is suspended). Those absences are factored into the lines but are new news (Winston, Elliott) or still haven’t quite flowed through (Rodgers) to the models. Same goes for Arizona (Tier II), Houston (Tier II), and the N.Y. Giants (Tier III). [Rather than mark so many teams for “exclusion,” I asterisked these teams this week.]
As always, take note of your lines relative to what’s listed below. The machine (three-model majority) pick is New Orleans at -3.0 but Buffalo at +4.0; Pittsburgh at -10.0 but Indianapolis at +10.5; Cincinnati at +4.5 but Tennessee at -3.5; and New England at -7.5 but Denver at +8.0. Couple of close shaves in there.
Week 10’s 14 games are rich with consensus among the models – at least in theory. There are eight three-model unanimous picks, four five-model unanimous picks (Tier I “best bets”), and five Tier II picks.
But beware of fool’s gold. Three of the four Tier I “best bet” teams are missing key players, including Tampa Bay (Jameis Winston is out), Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers is out), and Dallas (Zeke Elliott is suspended). Those absences are factored into the lines but are new news (Winston, Elliott) or still haven’t quite flowed through (Rodgers) to the models. Same goes for Arizona (Tier II), Houston (Tier II), and the N.Y. Giants (Tier III). [Rather than mark so many teams for “exclusion,” I asterisked these teams this week.]
As always, take note of your lines relative to what’s listed below. The machine (three-model majority) pick is New Orleans at -3.0 but Buffalo at +4.0; Pittsburgh at -10.0 but Indianapolis at +10.5; Cincinnati at +4.5 but Tennessee at -3.5; and New England at -7.5 but Denver at +8.0. Couple of close shaves in there.
Tiered picks are based on the five models listed below (methodology)
Good luck and enjoy Week 10!
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The five models referenced are created by and sourced from FiveThirtyEight ("Elo"), Jeff Sagarin via USA Today ("Rating" and "Offense-Defense Method Projections"), RP-Excel.com ("R-P Excel I"), and NutshellSports.com ("Nutshell Sports NFL Ratings"). Lines are sourced from FootballLocks.com as of Nov 9 at 5pm PT. Data was compiled and analyzed by ELDORADO. All charts and graphics herein were created by ELDORADO.
ELDORADO | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
eldo.co | @eldo_co
ELDORADO | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
eldo.co | @eldo_co