Searching for Value in NFL Picks and Futures
Weeks 1-4 - Weeks 5-8 - Weeks 9-12 - Weeks 13-17 - Summary
Weeks 1-4 - Weeks 5-8 - Weeks 9-12 - Weeks 13-17 - Summary
IMPORTANT NOTE
Almost every one of Searching for Value's NFL picks is an underdog. When betting underdogs on the moneyline (to win straight up), bettors are paid a multiple of the amount they've risked to compensate them for backing a team that the market believes has a lower or much lower likelihood of winning.
This NFL season, the system's average Tier 1 and Tier 2 Moneyline plays have had +306 odds, meaning winning bets would net 306 in profit for every 100 risked. The system's average Weekly Top 5 Moneyline plays have had +187 odds, meaning winning bets would net 187 in profit for every 100 risked.
As explained in the column, the system actually expects to lose more moneyline *bets* than it wins. (With average odds of +300, a bettor needs to win 25% of the time to break even.) But when it is earning over 300 per win and "only" losing 100 per loss, the record(s) below can produce highly positive returns.
Almost every one of Searching for Value's NFL picks is an underdog. When betting underdogs on the moneyline (to win straight up), bettors are paid a multiple of the amount they've risked to compensate them for backing a team that the market believes has a lower or much lower likelihood of winning.
This NFL season, the system's average Tier 1 and Tier 2 Moneyline plays have had +306 odds, meaning winning bets would net 306 in profit for every 100 risked. The system's average Weekly Top 5 Moneyline plays have had +187 odds, meaning winning bets would net 187 in profit for every 100 risked.
As explained in the column, the system actually expects to lose more moneyline *bets* than it wins. (With average odds of +300, a bettor needs to win 25% of the time to break even.) But when it is earning over 300 per win and "only" losing 100 per loss, the record(s) below can produce highly positive returns.
FOR ONGOING REFERENCE (CLICK HEADERS TO READ MORE)
"SEARCHING FOR VALUE" EVALUATES WHICH MONEYLINE PLAYS HAVE THE HIGHEST PROJECTED EXPECTED VALUE
This column attempts to quantify the expected value of each week's money-line plays (i.e., betting teams to win "straight up," not against the spread) throughout the NFL season. Generally speaking, a bettor (or model) would see positive expected value in a given bet if that bettor (or model) thought a certain outcome was more likely to occur than the sportsbooks' odds (or payout) implied.
For example, in Week 1, the sportsbooks had the Seattle Seahawks as +240 underdogs at home versus the Denver Broncos (i.e., risk $100 to profit $240 if Seattle wins; lose $100 if Seattle loses). By setting Seattle's money line at +240, the pre-game odds implied that the Seahawks had a 29.4% chance to win the game ("implied probability"). Positive expected value would exist if you (or some model) believed that Seattle had a higher probability to win than the 29.4% chance implied by those +240 odds. (Seattle won the game.)
(At the request of readers, I am also now tracking how these are performing when the same teams are taken against the spread.)
For example, in Week 1, the sportsbooks had the Seattle Seahawks as +240 underdogs at home versus the Denver Broncos (i.e., risk $100 to profit $240 if Seattle wins; lose $100 if Seattle loses). By setting Seattle's money line at +240, the pre-game odds implied that the Seahawks had a 29.4% chance to win the game ("implied probability"). Positive expected value would exist if you (or some model) believed that Seattle had a higher probability to win than the 29.4% chance implied by those +240 odds. (Seattle won the game.)
(At the request of readers, I am also now tracking how these are performing when the same teams are taken against the spread.)
THE PERCENTILES REFERENCED BELOW ARE NEITHER PROBABILITIES TO WIN NOR CONFIDENCE LEVELS
The numbers associated with each play are percentiles. They indicate where the expected value of a hypothetical moneyline pick ranks when compared to all potential moneyline picks over the last several seasons (i.e., among several thousand possibilities).
Teams in Tier 1 ("Selections") are in the 99th percentile or above when compared to all those possibilities. Over the historical period I've studied, these have occurred approximately once every three weeks (i.e., 1 out of every 50 games, aka 1 in 100 team-games).
Teams in Tier 2 ("Considerations") fall between the 94th and 99th percentile when compared to all those possibilities. On average, considerations should occur a little less than twice per week. They have roughly broken even over time (hence the name).
I also include a weekly Top 5. Betting all of those would have a negative return over time, though they have done well in 2022.
Teams in Tier 1 ("Selections") are in the 99th percentile or above when compared to all those possibilities. Over the historical period I've studied, these have occurred approximately once every three weeks (i.e., 1 out of every 50 games, aka 1 in 100 team-games).
Teams in Tier 2 ("Considerations") fall between the 94th and 99th percentile when compared to all those possibilities. On average, considerations should occur a little less than twice per week. They have roughly broken even over time (hence the name).
I also include a weekly Top 5. Betting all of those would have a negative return over time, though they have done well in 2022.
the model expects to LOSE more MONEYLINE *BETS* than it WINS, but its wins are worth 3x more
Underdogs are underdogs for a reason; the market thinks they're more likely to lose (sometimes a lot more likely) than they are to win. Consequently, moneyline underdogs pay more (sometimes a lot more) for victories (e.g., +300) than the amount at risk (e.g., 100).
If a bettor's average moneyline play is +300, they "only" need to win 25%+ of the time to break even, assuming equally sized plays. The average Tier 1 Selection in the period I've studied has carried +488 odds. The average Tier 2 Consideration has carried +343 odds.
The system is making plays that the market thinks should win only about 17-25% of the time, so they pay a lot when they win. When making 300 or 400 per win and losing 100 per loss, "losing records" — which the system expects — can produce positive returns.
If a bettor's average moneyline play is +300, they "only" need to win 25%+ of the time to break even, assuming equally sized plays. The average Tier 1 Selection in the period I've studied has carried +488 odds. The average Tier 2 Consideration has carried +343 odds.
The system is making plays that the market thinks should win only about 17-25% of the time, so they pay a lot when they win. When making 300 or 400 per win and losing 100 per loss, "losing records" — which the system expects — can produce positive returns.
IF A TEAM IS LISTED BELOW, IT DOES NOT MEAN THE SYSTEM THINKS THEY ARE LIKELY TO WIN THEIR GAME
Positive expected value instead suggests that the model thinks the team is more likely to win than the current moneyline odds imply. And while this column focuses purely on numbers, whether you actually think that's the case is ultimately up to you and your gut!
All TEAMS that have qualified AS tier 1 or TIER 2 MONEYLINE PLAYS in 2022, WITH RESULTS
Full season-to-date:
9-19-1 (+740 on 2800 risked, +26.4% return on dollars risked)
All underdog moneyline plays. In 2022, the system made an average of 306 per win and lost 100 per loss (100 per play). Hence the above returns.
1. TEN (+600) vs. DAL - Week 17 - 99.8 percentile - Lost 27-13 (Dobbs at QB)
2. SEA (+240) vs. DEN - Week 1 - 99.7 - Won 17-16 (Smith at QB)
3. DAL (+275) vs. CIN - Week 2 - 99.6 - Won 20-17 (Rush at QB)
4. TEN (+600) at KC - Week 9 - 99.3 - Lost 20-17 (OT) (Willis at QB)
5. HOU (+390) at DEN - Week 2 - 98.3 - Lost 19-6 (Mills at QB)
6. LAR (+245) vs. LVR - Week 14 - 98.3 - Won 17-16 (Mayfield at QB)
7. LAR (+265) vs. SEA - Week 13 - 98.2 - Lost 27-23 (OT) (Mayfield at QB)
8. ARZ (+300) vs. TB - Week 16 - 98.0 - Lost 19-16 (OT) (McSorley at QB)
9. HOU (+575) vs. PHI - Week 9 - 97.7 - Lost 29-17 (Mills at QB)
10. PIT (+380) vs. TB - Week 6 - 97.6 - Won 20-18 (Pickett at QB)
11. ARZ (+360) vs. SFO - Week 11 - 97.5 - Lost 38-10 (Blough at QB)
12. CAR (+530) vs. TB - Week 7 - 97.2 - Won 21-3 (Walker at QB; McCaffrey just traded)
13. WAS (+240) vs. PHI - Week 3 - 96.4 - Lost 24-8 (Wentz at QB)
14. SEA (+310) at SFO - Week 2 - 96.3 - Lost 27-7 (Smith at QB)
15. ARZ (+215) vs. PHI - Week 5 - 96.1 - Lost 20-17 (Murray at QB)
16. HOU (+283) vs. IND - Week 1 - 96.0 - Tied 20-20 (Mills at QB)
17. IND (+240) vs. PHI - Week 11 - 96.0 - Lost 17-16 (Ryan at QB)
18. HOU (+205) vs. LAC - Week 4 - 95.9 - Lost 34-24 (Mills at QB)
19. LVR (+370) vs. SFO - Week 17 - 95.5 - Lost 37-34 (OT) (Stidham at QB)
20. CHI (+265) vs. SFO - Week 1 - 95.4 - Won 19-10 (Fields at QB)
21. LAR (+130) vs. DEN - Week 16 - 95.4 - Won 51-14 (Mayfield at QB)
22. DAL (+245) at PHI - Week 6 - 95.2 - Lost 26-17 (Rush at QB)
23. TEN (+115) vs. LVR - Week 3 - 95.2 - Won 24-22 (Tannehill at QB)
24. IND (+190) vs. LAC - Week 16 - 95.0 - Lost 20-3 (Foles at QB)
25. ATL (+140) vs. LAC - Week 9 - 94.6 - Lost 20-17 (Mariota at QB)
26. NYJ (+275) vs. BAL - Week 1 - 94.6 - Lost 24-9 (Flacco at QB)
27. PIT (+295) at MIA - Week 7 - 94.5 - Lost 16-10 (Pickett at QB)
28. NYJ (+460) vs. BUF - Week 9 - 94.4 - Won 20-17 (Wilson at QB)
29. ARZ (+150) vs. LAC - Week 12 - 94.3 - Lost 25-24 (Murray at QB)
9-19-1 (+740 on 2800 risked, +26.4% return on dollars risked)
All underdog moneyline plays. In 2022, the system made an average of 306 per win and lost 100 per loss (100 per play). Hence the above returns.
1. TEN (+600) vs. DAL - Week 17 - 99.8 percentile - Lost 27-13 (Dobbs at QB)
2. SEA (+240) vs. DEN - Week 1 - 99.7 - Won 17-16 (Smith at QB)
3. DAL (+275) vs. CIN - Week 2 - 99.6 - Won 20-17 (Rush at QB)
4. TEN (+600) at KC - Week 9 - 99.3 - Lost 20-17 (OT) (Willis at QB)
5. HOU (+390) at DEN - Week 2 - 98.3 - Lost 19-6 (Mills at QB)
6. LAR (+245) vs. LVR - Week 14 - 98.3 - Won 17-16 (Mayfield at QB)
7. LAR (+265) vs. SEA - Week 13 - 98.2 - Lost 27-23 (OT) (Mayfield at QB)
8. ARZ (+300) vs. TB - Week 16 - 98.0 - Lost 19-16 (OT) (McSorley at QB)
9. HOU (+575) vs. PHI - Week 9 - 97.7 - Lost 29-17 (Mills at QB)
10. PIT (+380) vs. TB - Week 6 - 97.6 - Won 20-18 (Pickett at QB)
11. ARZ (+360) vs. SFO - Week 11 - 97.5 - Lost 38-10 (Blough at QB)
12. CAR (+530) vs. TB - Week 7 - 97.2 - Won 21-3 (Walker at QB; McCaffrey just traded)
13. WAS (+240) vs. PHI - Week 3 - 96.4 - Lost 24-8 (Wentz at QB)
14. SEA (+310) at SFO - Week 2 - 96.3 - Lost 27-7 (Smith at QB)
15. ARZ (+215) vs. PHI - Week 5 - 96.1 - Lost 20-17 (Murray at QB)
16. HOU (+283) vs. IND - Week 1 - 96.0 - Tied 20-20 (Mills at QB)
17. IND (+240) vs. PHI - Week 11 - 96.0 - Lost 17-16 (Ryan at QB)
18. HOU (+205) vs. LAC - Week 4 - 95.9 - Lost 34-24 (Mills at QB)
19. LVR (+370) vs. SFO - Week 17 - 95.5 - Lost 37-34 (OT) (Stidham at QB)
20. CHI (+265) vs. SFO - Week 1 - 95.4 - Won 19-10 (Fields at QB)
21. LAR (+130) vs. DEN - Week 16 - 95.4 - Won 51-14 (Mayfield at QB)
22. DAL (+245) at PHI - Week 6 - 95.2 - Lost 26-17 (Rush at QB)
23. TEN (+115) vs. LVR - Week 3 - 95.2 - Won 24-22 (Tannehill at QB)
24. IND (+190) vs. LAC - Week 16 - 95.0 - Lost 20-3 (Foles at QB)
25. ATL (+140) vs. LAC - Week 9 - 94.6 - Lost 20-17 (Mariota at QB)
26. NYJ (+275) vs. BAL - Week 1 - 94.6 - Lost 24-9 (Flacco at QB)
27. PIT (+295) at MIA - Week 7 - 94.5 - Lost 16-10 (Pickett at QB)
28. NYJ (+460) vs. BUF - Week 9 - 94.4 - Won 20-17 (Wilson at QB)
29. ARZ (+150) vs. LAC - Week 12 - 94.3 - Lost 25-24 (Murray at QB)
SEARCHING FOR VALUE IN WEEK 13
Tier 1 Moneyline Selections (99th-100th percentile)
- Season: 2-1-0 (+415 on 300 risked, +138.3%)
- Last Week: 0-0-0
Tier 2 Moneyline Considerations (94th-99th percentile)
- Season: 5-13-1 (+450 on 1800 risked, +25.0%)
- Last Week: 0-1-0 (-100) (ARZ +145 vs. LAC, Lost 25-24)
Weekly Top 5 Moneyline Expected Value
- Season: 23-36-1 (+1179 on 5900 risked, +20.0%)
- Last Week: 1-4-0 (-250)
Weekly Top 5 Applied Against the Spread
- Season: 37-23-0 (+1170 on 6600 risked, +17.7%)
- Last Week: 3-2-0 (+80)
Every Tier 1 and 2 play has been a modest to heavy underdog. Almost every Weekly Top 5 play has been an underdog. Assumes 100 per moneyline play and 110 to win 100 per against the spread play.
- Season: 2-1-0 (+415 on 300 risked, +138.3%)
- Last Week: 0-0-0
Tier 2 Moneyline Considerations (94th-99th percentile)
- Season: 5-13-1 (+450 on 1800 risked, +25.0%)
- Last Week: 0-1-0 (-100) (ARZ +145 vs. LAC, Lost 25-24)
Weekly Top 5 Moneyline Expected Value
- Season: 23-36-1 (+1179 on 5900 risked, +20.0%)
- Last Week: 1-4-0 (-250)
Weekly Top 5 Applied Against the Spread
- Season: 37-23-0 (+1170 on 6600 risked, +17.7%)
- Last Week: 3-2-0 (+80)
Every Tier 1 and 2 play has been a modest to heavy underdog. Almost every Weekly Top 5 play has been an underdog. Assumes 100 per moneyline play and 110 to win 100 per against the spread play.
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In Week 12, another instance of late line movement nudged a team into Tier 2 (or at least enabled you to find a money line that would qualify them). This time it was Arizona. The Cardinals were +145 underdogs at home against the Chargers for the most of week. As detailed in last week's column, Arizona's odds needed to hit +149 or higher to qualify for Tier 2. And while +145 remained the consensus line, I was able to find (and take) them at +150. Unfortunately, Arizona lost 25-24 on a gutsy 2-point conversion by the Chargers with 15 seconds left.
The top five expected value moneyline plays went 1-4 for the second week in a row but still hold a strong +20% return-on-dollars-risked for the season (23-36-1 on almost all modest-to-heavy underdogs). Taking those very same teams against the spread went 3-2, and despite being something of a "derivative" application of this system, still hasn't had a losing week since Week 6. We'll see how that goes from here.
When I first peeked at the numbers for this week, it looked like the Los Angeles Rams had a chance at eclipsing the elusive Tier 1 threshold, which only three plays have done this year: Seattle +240 in Week 1 (win), Dallas +275 in Week 2 (win), and Tennessee +600 in Week 9 (loss). At the time, the moneyline odds were opening around +310 for the Rams, playing at home against Seattle, albeit with John Wolford, the Rams' third-strong quarterback, at the helm (and star wide receiver Cooper Kupp on Injured Reserve since the middle of November). The +310 implied a 24% chance to win for the Rams, which the system felt was low. They would have been a Tier 1 play at +310 (99.3 percentile).
By now, and perhaps in part because Matthew Stafford ended up clearing the concussion protocol (but still won't start due to a neck issue), the Rams are now +265. They still qualify for Tier 2 (98.2 percentile) but will need to migrate back up to +292 for the system to believe they carry Tier 1 value. Remember that the system does not "know" about the quarterback situation (and only indirectly knows about the Kupp injury based on how it might have affected the Rams' results since he's been out). While this might make taking Los Angeles feel meh, the system has mostly done well when it think markets are "overreacting" to injuries and trades. (This doesn't mean the system thinks the Rams will win; it merely thinks they're more likely to win than the current odds imply.) Whether you think Rams +265 is a worth a go is up to you!
The top five expected value moneyline plays went 1-4 for the second week in a row but still hold a strong +20% return-on-dollars-risked for the season (23-36-1 on almost all modest-to-heavy underdogs). Taking those very same teams against the spread went 3-2, and despite being something of a "derivative" application of this system, still hasn't had a losing week since Week 6. We'll see how that goes from here.
When I first peeked at the numbers for this week, it looked like the Los Angeles Rams had a chance at eclipsing the elusive Tier 1 threshold, which only three plays have done this year: Seattle +240 in Week 1 (win), Dallas +275 in Week 2 (win), and Tennessee +600 in Week 9 (loss). At the time, the moneyline odds were opening around +310 for the Rams, playing at home against Seattle, albeit with John Wolford, the Rams' third-strong quarterback, at the helm (and star wide receiver Cooper Kupp on Injured Reserve since the middle of November). The +310 implied a 24% chance to win for the Rams, which the system felt was low. They would have been a Tier 1 play at +310 (99.3 percentile).
By now, and perhaps in part because Matthew Stafford ended up clearing the concussion protocol (but still won't start due to a neck issue), the Rams are now +265. They still qualify for Tier 2 (98.2 percentile) but will need to migrate back up to +292 for the system to believe they carry Tier 1 value. Remember that the system does not "know" about the quarterback situation (and only indirectly knows about the Kupp injury based on how it might have affected the Rams' results since he's been out). While this might make taking Los Angeles feel meh, the system has mostly done well when it think markets are "overreacting" to injuries and trades. (This doesn't mean the system thinks the Rams will win; it merely thinks they're more likely to win than the current odds imply.) Whether you think Rams +265 is a worth a go is up to you!
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Week 13's Top 5: Money-line Expected Value
1. LAR (+265) vs. SEA: 98.2 percentile
- The money line implies a 27% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 1 status is +292
2. HOU (+270) vs. CLE: 90.8 percentile
- The money line implies a 27% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +301
3. CHI (+160) vs. GBP: 88.1 percentile
- The money line implies a 38% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +195
4. DET (-108) vs. JAX: 85.1 percentile
- The money line implies a 52% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
5. MIN (-145) vs. NYJ: 82.8 percentile
- The money line implies a 59% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
1. LAR (+265) vs. SEA: 98.2 percentile
- The money line implies a 27% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 1 status is +292
2. HOU (+270) vs. CLE: 90.8 percentile
- The money line implies a 27% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +301
3. CHI (+160) vs. GBP: 88.1 percentile
- The money line implies a 38% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +195
4. DET (-108) vs. JAX: 85.1 percentile
- The money line implies a 52% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
5. MIN (-145) vs. NYJ: 82.8 percentile
- The money line implies a 59% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
SEARCHING FOR VALUE IN WEEK 14
Tier 1 Moneyline Selections (99th-100th percentile)
- Season: 2-1-0 (+415 on 300 risked, +138.3% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 0-0-0
Tier 2 Moneyline Considerations (94th-99th percentile)
- Season: 5-14-1 (+350 on 1900 risked, +18.4% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 0-1-0 (-100) (LAR +265 vs. SEA, Lost 27-23)
Weekly Top 5 Moneyline Expected Value
- Season: 23-36-1 (+1041 on 6400 risked, +16.3% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 2-3-0 (-138)
Weekly Top 5 Applied Against the Spread
- Season: 40-25-0 (+1250 on 7150 risked, +17.5% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 3-2-0 (+80)
Every Tier 1 and 2 play has been a modest to heavy underdog. Almost every Weekly Top 5 play has been an underdog. Assumes 100 per moneyline play and 110 to win 100 per against the spread play.
- Season: 2-1-0 (+415 on 300 risked, +138.3% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 0-0-0
Tier 2 Moneyline Considerations (94th-99th percentile)
- Season: 5-14-1 (+350 on 1900 risked, +18.4% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 0-1-0 (-100) (LAR +265 vs. SEA, Lost 27-23)
Weekly Top 5 Moneyline Expected Value
- Season: 23-36-1 (+1041 on 6400 risked, +16.3% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 2-3-0 (-138)
Weekly Top 5 Applied Against the Spread
- Season: 40-25-0 (+1250 on 7150 risked, +17.5% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 3-2-0 (+80)
Every Tier 1 and 2 play has been a modest to heavy underdog. Almost every Weekly Top 5 play has been an underdog. Assumes 100 per moneyline play and 110 to win 100 per against the spread play.
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As fortunate as this system has been overall this season, its string of recent bad luck continued in Week 13, as the Rams -- a +265 underdog and the week's only Tier 2 play (98.2 percentile) -- fell to the Seahawks 27-23 on a touchdown with 36 seconds left in the game. It's been a familiar refrain the last few weeks. Week 12's lone Tier 2 play (Arizona +150 versus the Chargers) lost 25-24 on a touchdown and 2-point conversion with 15 seconds to go. And one of Week 11's Tier 2 plays (Indianapolis +240 versus Philadelphia) lost 17-16 on a touchdown (and extra point) with 1:20 to go. Alas, you are what your record says you are; thankfully, that record is still quite good for the season as a whole.
It's been especially good of late for those (like my uncle) who play the weekly top five against the spread. Though not this column's original focus, the underlying logic -- that the system thinks certain games are mispriced -- is the same. The against-the-spread method notched its seventh straight winning week last week by going 3-2, and it now boasts a 40-25 record on the season (+1250 on 7150 risked, assuming equal bets of 110 to win 100). Sadly, I haven't bet the against-the-spread slate yet because I keep thinking the bottom is going to fall out.
As always, season-to-date records and explanations can be found above, along with a running list of 2022's Tier 1 and Tier 2 qualifiers -- which, despite the recent run of bad luck, combine for a 7-15-1 record on the moneyline this season, entirely on underdogs (and almost all modest to heavy ones at that). That's good for +765 in profit on 2200 risked, or a +34.7% return on dollars risked, assuming 100 per play.
Likewise, ELDORADO's weekly top five expected value plays can be found below. As of Wednesday night, the only Tier 2 qualifier is again the Rams, which the system views as undervalued in large part because it doesn't know about their increasingly complicated (and dire?) quarterback situation. Quarterback John Wolford, who started last week, is himself now questionable with a neck injury; Bryce Perkins, who has thrown 34 career passes (all in Weeks 10-12) is likely the next man up, though the team just acquired Baker Mayfield off waivers as well.
The Rams play on Thursday night, and I imagine that their current +215 odds will inflate some if Wolford is ruled out. (Perkins started against the Chiefs two weeks ago, went 13-for-23 for 100 passing yards, and ran nine times for 44 yards in a 26-1o loss at Arrowhead.) So that could be worth watching out for. Meanwhile, if the Vikings move from +120 to +133 or higher at Detroit, they will also meet the Tier 2 threshold.
It's been especially good of late for those (like my uncle) who play the weekly top five against the spread. Though not this column's original focus, the underlying logic -- that the system thinks certain games are mispriced -- is the same. The against-the-spread method notched its seventh straight winning week last week by going 3-2, and it now boasts a 40-25 record on the season (+1250 on 7150 risked, assuming equal bets of 110 to win 100). Sadly, I haven't bet the against-the-spread slate yet because I keep thinking the bottom is going to fall out.
As always, season-to-date records and explanations can be found above, along with a running list of 2022's Tier 1 and Tier 2 qualifiers -- which, despite the recent run of bad luck, combine for a 7-15-1 record on the moneyline this season, entirely on underdogs (and almost all modest to heavy ones at that). That's good for +765 in profit on 2200 risked, or a +34.7% return on dollars risked, assuming 100 per play.
Likewise, ELDORADO's weekly top five expected value plays can be found below. As of Wednesday night, the only Tier 2 qualifier is again the Rams, which the system views as undervalued in large part because it doesn't know about their increasingly complicated (and dire?) quarterback situation. Quarterback John Wolford, who started last week, is himself now questionable with a neck injury; Bryce Perkins, who has thrown 34 career passes (all in Weeks 10-12) is likely the next man up, though the team just acquired Baker Mayfield off waivers as well.
The Rams play on Thursday night, and I imagine that their current +215 odds will inflate some if Wolford is ruled out. (Perkins started against the Chiefs two weeks ago, went 13-for-23 for 100 passing yards, and ran nine times for 44 yards in a 26-1o loss at Arrowhead.) So that could be worth watching out for. Meanwhile, if the Vikings move from +120 to +133 or higher at Detroit, they will also meet the Tier 2 threshold.
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Week 14's Top 5: Money-line Expected Value
1. LAR (+245) vs. LVR: 98.3 percentile
- The money line implies a 32% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 1 status is +269
2. MIN (+120) at DET: 92.2 percentile
- The money line implies a 45% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +133
3. TEN (-196) vs. JAX: 86.7 percentile
- The money line implies a 66% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
4. BAL (+125) at PIT: 85.5 percentile
- The money line implies a 44% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
5. LAC (+145) vs. MIA: 78.4 percentile
- The money line implies a 41% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
1. LAR (+245) vs. LVR: 98.3 percentile
- The money line implies a 32% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 1 status is +269
2. MIN (+120) at DET: 92.2 percentile
- The money line implies a 45% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +133
3. TEN (-196) vs. JAX: 86.7 percentile
- The money line implies a 66% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
4. BAL (+125) at PIT: 85.5 percentile
- The money line implies a 44% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
5. LAC (+145) vs. MIA: 78.4 percentile
- The money line implies a 41% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
SEARCHING FOR VALUE IN WEEK 15
Tier 1 Moneyline Selections (99th-100th percentile)
- Season: 2-1-0 (+415 on 300 risked, +138.3% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 0-0-0
Tier 2 Moneyline Considerations (94th-99th percentile)
- Season: 6-14-1 (+595 on 2000 risked, +29.8% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 1-0-0 (+245) (LAR +245 vs. LVR, Won 17-16)
Weekly Top 5 Moneyline Expected Value
- Season: 28-41-1 (+1356 on 6900 risked, +19.6% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 3-2-0 (+315)
Weekly Top 5 Applied Against the Spread
- Season: 43-27-0 (+1330 on 7700 risked, +17.3% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 3-2-0 (+80)
Every Tier 1 and 2 play has been a modest to heavy underdog. Almost every Weekly Top 5 play has been an underdog. Assumes 100 per moneyline play and 110 to win 100 per against the spread play.
- Season: 2-1-0 (+415 on 300 risked, +138.3% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 0-0-0
Tier 2 Moneyline Considerations (94th-99th percentile)
- Season: 6-14-1 (+595 on 2000 risked, +29.8% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 1-0-0 (+245) (LAR +245 vs. LVR, Won 17-16)
Weekly Top 5 Moneyline Expected Value
- Season: 28-41-1 (+1356 on 6900 risked, +19.6% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 3-2-0 (+315)
Weekly Top 5 Applied Against the Spread
- Season: 43-27-0 (+1330 on 7700 risked, +17.3% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 3-2-0 (+80)
Every Tier 1 and 2 play has been a modest to heavy underdog. Almost every Weekly Top 5 play has been an underdog. Assumes 100 per moneyline play and 110 to win 100 per against the spread play.
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Week 14 was another very strong week for the system, as Baker Mayfield and the Los Angeles Rams pulled off a miracle late-game victory as +245 home underdogs against the Las Vegas Raiders. (They had started the week around +215, which already put them safely into Tier 2, and rose from there.) At +245, they were in the 98th percentile (98.3) in terms of moneyline expected value (EV), which this column viewed as the fifth-highest EV of the year. As always, you can review a running list of all of this season's Tier 1 and Tier 2 qualifiers up above.
Tier 1 and Tier 2 moneyline plays are now 8-15-1 on the season, good for a +1010 return on 2300 risked, or a positive return on investment of 43.9%. Along with the now-many reminders above, these are all modest-to-heavy moneyline underdog plays (underdogs to win straight up at plus odds) . The positive returns come from the fact that the system is making about 300 per win and "only" losing 100 per loss.
The system also won with Baltimore (+125 at Pittsburgh) and the Chargers (+145 vs. Miami) as moneyline underdogs in the weekly top five. Taking those same five against the spread also went 3-2, and still has not had a losing week since Week 6. The running records are above.
There are no Tier 1 or Tier 2 qualifiers in Week 15, and the top five (below) has among the lowest percentiles of any week this NFL season.
Tier 1 and Tier 2 moneyline plays are now 8-15-1 on the season, good for a +1010 return on 2300 risked, or a positive return on investment of 43.9%. Along with the now-many reminders above, these are all modest-to-heavy moneyline underdog plays (underdogs to win straight up at plus odds) . The positive returns come from the fact that the system is making about 300 per win and "only" losing 100 per loss.
The system also won with Baltimore (+125 at Pittsburgh) and the Chargers (+145 vs. Miami) as moneyline underdogs in the weekly top five. Taking those same five against the spread also went 3-2, and still has not had a losing week since Week 6. The running records are above.
There are no Tier 1 or Tier 2 qualifiers in Week 15, and the top five (below) has among the lowest percentiles of any week this NFL season.
Week 15's Top 5: Money-line Expected Value
1. BAL (+132) at CLE: 89.5 percentile
- The money line implies a 43% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
2. LAR (+260) at GBP: 87.4 percentile
- The money line implies a 28% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
3. TB (+166) vs. CIN: 80.4 percentile
- The money line implies a 38% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
4. MIN (-190) vs. IND: 77.7 percentile
- The money line implies a 66% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
5. NYJ (-110) vs. DET: 75.5 percentile
- The money line implies a 52% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
1. BAL (+132) at CLE: 89.5 percentile
- The money line implies a 43% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
2. LAR (+260) at GBP: 87.4 percentile
- The money line implies a 28% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
3. TB (+166) vs. CIN: 80.4 percentile
- The money line implies a 38% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
4. MIN (-190) vs. IND: 77.7 percentile
- The money line implies a 66% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
5. NYJ (-110) vs. DET: 75.5 percentile
- The money line implies a 52% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
SEARCHING FOR VALUE IN WEEK 16
Tier 1 Moneyline Selections (99th-100th percentile)
- Season: 2-1-0 (+415 on 300 risked, +138.3% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 0-0-0
Tier 2 Moneyline Considerations (94th-99th percentile)
- Season: 6-14-1 (+595 on 2000 risked, +29.8% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 0-0-0
Weekly Top 5 Moneyline Expected Value
- Season: 29-45-1 (+1009 on 7400 risked, +13.6% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 1-4-0 (-347)
Weekly Top 5 Applied Against the Spread
- Season: 43-32-0 (+780 on 8250 risked, +9.5% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 0-5-0 (-550)
Every Tier 1 and 2 play has been a modest to heavy underdog. Almost every Weekly Top 5 play has been an underdog. Assumes 100 per moneyline play and 110 to win 100 per against the spread play.
- Season: 2-1-0 (+415 on 300 risked, +138.3% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 0-0-0
Tier 2 Moneyline Considerations (94th-99th percentile)
- Season: 6-14-1 (+595 on 2000 risked, +29.8% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 0-0-0
Weekly Top 5 Moneyline Expected Value
- Season: 29-45-1 (+1009 on 7400 risked, +13.6% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 1-4-0 (-347)
Weekly Top 5 Applied Against the Spread
- Season: 43-32-0 (+780 on 8250 risked, +9.5% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 0-5-0 (-550)
Every Tier 1 and 2 play has been a modest to heavy underdog. Almost every Weekly Top 5 play has been an underdog. Assumes 100 per moneyline play and 110 to win 100 per against the spread play.
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There were no Tier 1 or Tier 2 qualifiers last week. The weekly top five, which I described in last week's column as seemingly the weakest of the year on an expected value percentile basis, lived up to its billing, giving us its worst week of the year both on the moneyline and against the spread. It was first losing week for the against-the-spread application of the system since Week 6. (As a reminder, as well as the weekly top five have done this year, betting the entire slate every week would produce negative returns over time, according to several seasons worth of back-testing.)
Three teams currently qualify for Tier 2 in Week 16 (below), and coincidentally, they are the final three kickoffs of this unconventional NFL weekend, in which most games will be played on Saturday, Christmas Eve -- the Rams (vs. Denver) at 4:30pm ET on Sunday afternoon, the Cardinals (vs. Tampa Bay) on Sunday night, and the Colts (vs. the Chargers) on Monday night.
Perhaps not coincidentally, they all come laden with injuries and uncertainty, especially at quarterback. Baker Mayfield will presumably be back at quarterback for the Rams; he couldn't repeat his Week 14 magic last week. The Cardinals are already without Kyler Murray, now back-up Colt McCoy has been declared out, giving Trace McSorley his first start. The Colts have benched Matt Ryan in favor of Nick Foles (which might actually excite some Colts fans).
Even the other two teams in the top five, Philadelphia and Tennessee -- which do not currently qualify for Tier 2 -- have injuries at quarterback. The Eagles' Jalen Hurts is in question with a right shoulder sprain, and the Titans' Ryan Tannehill has been ruled out for the season with an ankle injury.
These injuries inflate the odds associated with betting on each of these teams, while the system does not capture the effect of these injuries, except where a certain injury might have already affected a team's recent performance. I have written about this a few times this season, including all the way back in Week 1, highlighting it as an unavoidably "subjective" decision for you to make in what is otherwise intended to be an objective and purely numbers-based system.
Still, I must note that I've back-tested third-party prediction models that purport to account for quarterback quality, and they performed worse in my analyses than those that did not. On top of that, "sticking with the system" -- essentially hoping that the markets underestimate a team's chances with their back-up quarterback at the helm (or after some other key trade or injury) -- has been a net positive this year. A really bad week in Week 16 could change that. It will be fun to see how it plays out. Merry Christmas and enjoy Week 16!
(I should also mention that I am seeing a bit more odds variability between books than usual this week, likely due to the aforementioned quarterback situations, which can be harder to price or at the very least can reduce consensus between oddsmakers. Watch out for those, since they can affect which teams qualify for Tier 1 or Tier 2, and which do not.)
Three teams currently qualify for Tier 2 in Week 16 (below), and coincidentally, they are the final three kickoffs of this unconventional NFL weekend, in which most games will be played on Saturday, Christmas Eve -- the Rams (vs. Denver) at 4:30pm ET on Sunday afternoon, the Cardinals (vs. Tampa Bay) on Sunday night, and the Colts (vs. the Chargers) on Monday night.
Perhaps not coincidentally, they all come laden with injuries and uncertainty, especially at quarterback. Baker Mayfield will presumably be back at quarterback for the Rams; he couldn't repeat his Week 14 magic last week. The Cardinals are already without Kyler Murray, now back-up Colt McCoy has been declared out, giving Trace McSorley his first start. The Colts have benched Matt Ryan in favor of Nick Foles (which might actually excite some Colts fans).
Even the other two teams in the top five, Philadelphia and Tennessee -- which do not currently qualify for Tier 2 -- have injuries at quarterback. The Eagles' Jalen Hurts is in question with a right shoulder sprain, and the Titans' Ryan Tannehill has been ruled out for the season with an ankle injury.
These injuries inflate the odds associated with betting on each of these teams, while the system does not capture the effect of these injuries, except where a certain injury might have already affected a team's recent performance. I have written about this a few times this season, including all the way back in Week 1, highlighting it as an unavoidably "subjective" decision for you to make in what is otherwise intended to be an objective and purely numbers-based system.
Still, I must note that I've back-tested third-party prediction models that purport to account for quarterback quality, and they performed worse in my analyses than those that did not. On top of that, "sticking with the system" -- essentially hoping that the markets underestimate a team's chances with their back-up quarterback at the helm (or after some other key trade or injury) -- has been a net positive this year. A really bad week in Week 16 could change that. It will be fun to see how it plays out. Merry Christmas and enjoy Week 16!
(I should also mention that I am seeing a bit more odds variability between books than usual this week, likely due to the aforementioned quarterback situations, which can be harder to price or at the very least can reduce consensus between oddsmakers. Watch out for those, since they can affect which teams qualify for Tier 1 or Tier 2, and which do not.)
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Week 16's Top 5: Money-line Expected Value
1. ARZ (+300) vs. TB: 98.0 percentile
- The money line implies a 25% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Note: Third-stringer Trace McSorley is starting at QB for Arizona
- Minimum to move up to Tier 1 status is +335
2. IND (+195) vs. LAC: 95.5 percentile
- The money line implies a 34% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Note: The Colts have benched QB Matt Ryan in favor of Nick Foles
- Minimum to maintain Tier 2 status is +183
3. LAR (+124) vs. DEN: 94.4 percentile
- The money line implies a 45% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Note: Recently signed Baker Mayfield is starting at QB for Los Angeles
- Minimum to maintain Tier 2 status is +122
4. TEN (-150) vs. HOU: 92.8 percentile
- The money line implies a 60% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Note: Back-up Mailk Willis is starting at QB for Tennessee
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is -136
5. PHI (+190) at DAL: 89.6 percentile
- The money line implies a 34% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Note: Jalen Hurts is questionable at QB for Philadelphia (as of Wednesday)
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +220
1. ARZ (+300) vs. TB: 98.0 percentile
- The money line implies a 25% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Note: Third-stringer Trace McSorley is starting at QB for Arizona
- Minimum to move up to Tier 1 status is +335
2. IND (+195) vs. LAC: 95.5 percentile
- The money line implies a 34% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Note: The Colts have benched QB Matt Ryan in favor of Nick Foles
- Minimum to maintain Tier 2 status is +183
3. LAR (+124) vs. DEN: 94.4 percentile
- The money line implies a 45% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Note: Recently signed Baker Mayfield is starting at QB for Los Angeles
- Minimum to maintain Tier 2 status is +122
4. TEN (-150) vs. HOU: 92.8 percentile
- The money line implies a 60% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Note: Back-up Mailk Willis is starting at QB for Tennessee
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is -136
5. PHI (+190) at DAL: 89.6 percentile
- The money line implies a 34% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Note: Jalen Hurts is questionable at QB for Philadelphia (as of Wednesday)
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +220
SEARCHING FOR VALUE IN WEEK 17
Tier 1 Moneyline Selections (99th-100th percentile)
- Season: 2-1-0 (+415 on 300 risked, +138.3% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 0-0-0
Tier 2 Moneyline Considerations (94th-99th percentile)
- Season: 7-16-1 (+525 on 2300 risked, +22.8% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 1-2-0 (-70)
Weekly Top 5 Moneyline Expected Value
- Season: 30-49-1 (+739 on 7900 risked, +9.3% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 1-4-0 (-270)
Weekly Top 5 Applied Against the Spread
- Season: 45-35-0 (+650 on 8800 risked, +7.4% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 2-3-0 (-130)
Every Tier 1 and 2 play has been a modest to heavy underdog. Almost every Weekly Top 5 play has been an underdog. Assumes 100 per moneyline play and 110 to win 100 per against the spread play.
- Season: 2-1-0 (+415 on 300 risked, +138.3% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 0-0-0
Tier 2 Moneyline Considerations (94th-99th percentile)
- Season: 7-16-1 (+525 on 2300 risked, +22.8% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 1-2-0 (-70)
Weekly Top 5 Moneyline Expected Value
- Season: 30-49-1 (+739 on 7900 risked, +9.3% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 1-4-0 (-270)
Weekly Top 5 Applied Against the Spread
- Season: 45-35-0 (+650 on 8800 risked, +7.4% return on dollars risked)
- Last Week: 2-3-0 (-130)
Every Tier 1 and 2 play has been a modest to heavy underdog. Almost every Weekly Top 5 play has been an underdog. Assumes 100 per moneyline play and 110 to win 100 per against the spread play.
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Quick post this week to get this up in time. Last week of December and first week of January are always my craziest work weeks. Mix that with the holidays and an out-of-town wedding tomorrow, and we have a quick post.
Last week, Arizona's overtime loss to Tampa Bay as a +300 Tier 2 play -- in a game that they basically blew on a fumbled fourth-quarter QB to RB toss -- represented a $400 swing (at 100 per play), and was the difference between a brilliant week and a below-average (losing) week. The Tier 2 moneyline plays went 1-2 (all underdogs), with the Rams registering another win.
Prior the advent of the 17-game season, I would not even post during Week 17 because too many teams weren't playing for anything, which misaligns the models and the odds. But with only one bye per conference, many teams are still playing for something, so let's post it anyway and you can decide. (We'll have to see about next week. The final week feels meh.)
Week 17 does feature the rare Tier 1 play, but buyer beware. It's the Titans on Thursday night hosting the Cowboys as +600 home underdogs. Dallas is hot, while Tennessee has lost five in a row, is likely without star running back Derrick Henry, and announced today that they would be starting their third-string quarterback, Joshua Dobbs. (Full injury article here.)
The Raiders are technically a Tier 2 qualifier, but they come riddled with questions as well. Not only are they out of playoff contention, they've benched starting quarterback Derek Carr. I suppose this week will be a good test as to whether Week 17 in the 18-week era should be included or ignored going forward. Definitely seems like a buyer beware / sit-it-out week, but let's see.
Seattle could make the Tier 2 cut with a little bit of line movement. (And again -- as I repeat often and is plastered all over these pages -- none of this means that the system thinks the Titans, Raiders, or any other team is likely to win. It just thinks they have a better chance to do so than the current odds imply. Whether you agree is obviously up to you.)
Last week, Arizona's overtime loss to Tampa Bay as a +300 Tier 2 play -- in a game that they basically blew on a fumbled fourth-quarter QB to RB toss -- represented a $400 swing (at 100 per play), and was the difference between a brilliant week and a below-average (losing) week. The Tier 2 moneyline plays went 1-2 (all underdogs), with the Rams registering another win.
Prior the advent of the 17-game season, I would not even post during Week 17 because too many teams weren't playing for anything, which misaligns the models and the odds. But with only one bye per conference, many teams are still playing for something, so let's post it anyway and you can decide. (We'll have to see about next week. The final week feels meh.)
Week 17 does feature the rare Tier 1 play, but buyer beware. It's the Titans on Thursday night hosting the Cowboys as +600 home underdogs. Dallas is hot, while Tennessee has lost five in a row, is likely without star running back Derrick Henry, and announced today that they would be starting their third-string quarterback, Joshua Dobbs. (Full injury article here.)
The Raiders are technically a Tier 2 qualifier, but they come riddled with questions as well. Not only are they out of playoff contention, they've benched starting quarterback Derek Carr. I suppose this week will be a good test as to whether Week 17 in the 18-week era should be included or ignored going forward. Definitely seems like a buyer beware / sit-it-out week, but let's see.
Seattle could make the Tier 2 cut with a little bit of line movement. (And again -- as I repeat often and is plastered all over these pages -- none of this means that the system thinks the Titans, Raiders, or any other team is likely to win. It just thinks they have a better chance to do so than the current odds imply. Whether you agree is obviously up to you.)
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Week 17's Top 5 (INJURY AND BACKUP-RIDDLED) Money-line Expected Value
1. TEN (+600) vs. DAL: 99.8 percentile
- The money line implies a 14% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Note: Third-stringer Joshua Dobbs is starting at QB for Titans and RB Derrick Henry is likely out
2. LVR (+370) vs. SFO: 95.5 percentile
- The money line implies a 21% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Note: The Colts have benched QB Derek Carr in favor of Jarrett Stidham
3. SEA (+110) vs. NYJ: 93.2 percentile
- The money line implies a 48% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +116
4. MIN (+156) at GB: 85.0 percentile
- The money line implies a 39% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
5. BAL (-130) vs. PIT: 83.3 percentile
- The money line implies a 57% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Note: Ravens' QB Lamar Jackson is out with an injury
1. TEN (+600) vs. DAL: 99.8 percentile
- The money line implies a 14% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Note: Third-stringer Joshua Dobbs is starting at QB for Titans and RB Derrick Henry is likely out
2. LVR (+370) vs. SFO: 95.5 percentile
- The money line implies a 21% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Note: The Colts have benched QB Derek Carr in favor of Jarrett Stidham
3. SEA (+110) vs. NYJ: 93.2 percentile
- The money line implies a 48% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Minimum to move up to Tier 2 status is +116
4. MIN (+156) at GB: 85.0 percentile
- The money line implies a 39% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
5. BAL (-130) vs. PIT: 83.3 percentile
- The money line implies a 57% chance for them to win
- Do you think they have a meaningfully better chance than that?
- Note: Ravens' QB Lamar Jackson is out with an injury
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